Rune prices and the rune market Greeks
0.9.53Rune prices are sats per whole token from confirmed sales on our node. The Greeks borrow option-market letters for change, drift, volatility and co-movement.
In one sentence
A rune's price is sats per whole token from confirmed single-rune sales our node saw, in 6-hour volume-weighted medians; the Greeks borrow option-market letters for its change (delta, gamma), drift (theta), volatility (vega) and movement with the market (beta, alpha).
Prices
- Sats per whole token: the sale price divided by the units the buyer received (from the edicts).
- Only single-rune sales with a stated amount are priced.
- Trades priced far from their neighbours are dropped, and wash-flagged trades are left out.
- The rest are grouped into 6-hour buckets, each priced at the volume-weighted median.
The Greeks
Real Greeks describe option prices. Runes have no options market, so the letters are borrowed for their plain meaning:
| Letter | Name | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Δ | delta | Price change: the last 24 hours against the 24 hours before, and over the window: from the earliest of the last 7 days with a sale, so it can span as few as 3 days. A rune's page says how many. |
| Γ | gamma | The change in that change: today's delta minus yesterday's. |
| Θ | theta | Steady drift per day across the window (the slope of log price). |
| ν | vega | Volatility: the typical size of a day's price move. |
| β | beta | How much the rune moves with the rune market (6-hour returns over 7 days), and with bitcoin in dollar terms (daily returns over 30 days, shown once there are 14 days to compare). |
| α | alpha | Return per day beyond what beta explains (Jensen's alpha). |
The "rune market" is a volume-weighted average of every rune's bucket returns, leaving out the rune being measured.
Confidence
Thin markets give noisy numbers, so each rune carries a confidence label (good, fair or low) from how many sales and price steps it has. Treat "low" as a hint, not a measurement.
Market cap
Supply, from our own ord index, multiplied by the 24-hour typical price (the volume-weighted median, so one odd trade doesn't move it). If nothing traded in the last 24 hours, the Greeks table uses the last sale and a rune's own page uses its 30-day median price per token.
Also as plain Markdown. See every methodology page.
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