Methodology

Holder overlap network (Labs)

0.9.53

Which of the collections we follow share holders, how many, and how much more often than chance would give, with custodians left out and counts only.

In one sentence

For every pair of the collections we follow, the holders they share are counted and compared with what chance would give (the lift), with custodians left out and pairs with fewer than 10 shared holders not shown.

What it is

A Labs experiment. For every pair of the collections we follow, we count the holders they share and compare that with what chance would give. The result is drawn as a network: a line between two collections means their holders overlap more than you would expect if holding one said nothing about holding the other.

Which collections

The ones whose owners the dashboard already re-reads every day: collections someone here holds or watches, and the 50 with the most sales volume our node saw in 30 days. A collection is included only once our own ord index has answered for at least 90% of its members, the same rule the holder counts on a collection page follow. The card says how many are in the network and how many are still waiting.

Owners come from our own ord index and move to the buyer the moment our node sees a sale. Nothing is read while ord is still catching up: an owner read during indexing is the owner as of the block ord has reached, which can be months ago.

The numbers

For collections A and B, among N distinct holders across every included collection:

FigureFormulaWhat it says
Shared holdersaddresses holding at least one item of bothhow many people (wallets) are in both
Overlapshared ÷ the smaller collection's holdershow much of the smaller collection is shared
ExpectedA's holders × B's holders ÷ Nshared holders if the two were unrelated
Liftshared ÷ expectedhow many times chance

A lift of 4.2 reads: holders of A are 4.2× as likely as chance to hold B. Lift is symmetric, so the same is true the other way round. A lift near 1 means no link beyond chance; below 1, the two collections' holders tend to be different people.

Worked example. 1,000 holders in all; A has 100, B has 50, and 20 hold both. Expected: 100 × 50 ÷ 1,000 = 5. Lift: 20 ÷ 5 = 4. Overlap: 20 ÷ 50 = 40% of B.

What is left out

Limits

Privacy

Counts only. The network is worked out from addresses, but no address is stored with it or sent to the page, and there are no per-wallet suggestions ("you hold X, so…").

The question

Did this show you a collection you'd look at? Vote on the Labs page.

Also as plain Markdown. See every methodology page.

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